Following my interviews with former Thai prime minister in exile Thaksin Shinawatra (who warned that a coup in Thailand would be bloody), the ASEAN Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan (who said that Thailand’s constitution may need amending), I spoke yesterday with Shawn Crispin, Southeast Asia editor for Asia Times Online. In addition to covering Thailand for a decade, Shawn at one time worked as speechwriter to the current prime minister’s father.

Shawn’s take is that Thaksin is finished. There is not enough financial or military support for Thaksin or his party to be a credible force in Thailand.

Another theory floating around Bangkok – not by Shawn – is that if Thaksin really wanted to come back to consolidate power, he should serve time in jail. Current sentence is for 2 years. At that point he would come out of prison in a stronger position than ever.