Comments on: Bill Bishop’s estimate of 2007 China Internet Advertising Revenue

By: Marianne McDougall

Marianne McDougall — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 17:56:26 +0000

Are the figures just projections.

By: thomascrampton

thomascrampton — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 10:14:13 +0000

@Jan: You can check out that number with Bill Bishop’s estimates above.

By: Jan Van den Bergh

Jan Van den Bergh — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 23:31:08 +0000

In a paper I wrote in february 2006 the figures I used were usd 500 million for online ad spend and usd 50 billion for total adspend in China. Only was roughly 1% fo that total. I wonder whether the authors have any idea what the total ad spend this year should be?

By: Krapax

Krapax — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 11:30:00 +0000

(Youtube is back)

Krapax.

By: mark simon

mark simon — Tue, 30 Oct 2007 02:24:55 +0000

So in other words, if you take all of the most optimistic projections of Chinese internet ad revenue you still get about one month of the Guangzhou province print market.

By: thomascrampton

thomascrampton — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 04:57:33 +0000

Scott,

Yes, I did make a typo on the currency in an early version of the posting (now corrected).

Thanks for the detailed analysis that combines iResearch data with Bill Bishop’s methods to arrive at Morgan Stanley’s results!

Does iResearch have their own market size estimate? Anybody out there know the right person at iResearch for this data?

Be interesting to do a league table.

Tom

By: scott

scott — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 04:27:45 +0000

I think you’ve got your currencies mixed up? I’m assuming Bill’s numbers are actually in US$ so it would be RMB6.3bn which is in line with Groupm’s (WPP’s media division) prediction of RMB6.2bn. Totally agree with Bill’s critique of Nielsen’s methodology.

As for the other data points in Bill’s analysis I think i saw some research from iResearch which said the major portals (assume Bill’s Big 6) now account for 60% of online ad revenue with major verticals such as PConline etc taking 25% and the rest taking 14%.

On the 07 predictions he makes I had a look back at Richard Ji’s (Morgan Stanley)predictions for these companies in 07 and the totals were as follows:

Netease: $35m in advertising in 07, $50m in 08.
Shanda: he doesn’t break out ad revenue
Sina: $170m in 07, $263m in 08
Sohu: $119m in 07, $170m in 08
Tencent: $67m in 07, $128m in 08
Baidu: $229m in 07, $427m in 08
Tom – not covered

So actually using Richard’s numbers and Bill’s methodology you actually get close to RMB7bn, even if you use the iResearch 60% share figure (which I may be remembering wrongly) you get RMB8.15bn still short of Nielsen’s ambitious target.

Hope the above helps.